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Choosing Distribution Parameters From Data

A quick framework for estimating parameters and validating model fit in applied analysis.

Try This In The Plotter

Jump directly into the interval probability workflow and apply this guide on a live distribution chart.

Open Interactive Interval Probability

Start With The Data Generating Process

Match candidate distributions to variable type and mechanism: counts, times, bounded ratios, or symmetric measurement noise.

This step avoids overfitting and reduces trial-and-error.

Estimate Parameters

Use sample statistics as first estimates (mean, variance, proportion).

Then refine with maximum likelihood or domain-specific constraints when needed.

Validate Fit

Check residual patterns, QQ behavior, and whether tail behavior matches your risk use case.

If fit is poor, compare alternatives and document tradeoffs.